Stan Musial's Stance

Why Dennys Reyes?

07/29/2010 · 1 Comment

For some reason, at some level, I believe Trever Miller to be a better LOOGY than Dennys Reyes.  This might be colored by Miller’s ridiculous stranded runner rate in 2009, which has no bearing on performance in 2010.  That said, when Reyes entered last night’s game in the eighth to protect a 2-run lead, I shook my head.  One walk and a single later, the game was tied.  See?  Reyes was a bad call.  Or was he?

Let’s set aside the fact Reyes last pitched on Sunday, and Miller pitched Tuesday.  Miller went an inning, so ostensibly he still would have been available last night.

Looking at the numbers (which will include last night’s appearances, because it doesn’t change the conclusions) Miller has thrown 25.1 innings, Reyes 27.2 in 2010.  Reyes’ xFIP is almost a full run better than Miller’s (4.09 to 4.94).  Additionally, Reyes’ LOB% is better, although I would submit not statistically better (78.3% vice 75.3%), but still better.  So far the evidence screams Reyes was the right choice and I’m an idiot.  Which is certainly possible.

Let’s look at Runs Allowed vs Earned Runs before we consign me to the idiot pile.  Based on the Baseball Reference definitions (found under the ‘splits’ function on the player’s page), Runs Allowed “are credited to the pitcher in the game when the run scored”, and Earned Runs “are credited to the pitcher who was pitching when the scorer was at bat”.   Here you go:

  • Reyes:  26 Runs Allowed, 20 Earned Runs
  • Miller:  20 Runs Allowed, 21 Earned Runs

If I read that correctly, Reyes has allowed more inherited runners to score than Miller.  Which is interesting considering his LOB% is better; makes me wonder if that LOB% is for runners he lets reach base only or includes runners he inherits.  Since the whole point of being a high-leverage reliever is to leave those inherited runners right where they are – on the basepaths, as opposed to crossing the plate – it seems Miller should have thrown to Thole and Davis (Miller has never faced Ike Davis.  Thole is 0 for 1 against him).

Apologies for the Hiatus.  FY11 budget preparations have been more intensive than previous years, and were all-encompassing.

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Our long National (League) nightmare is over

07/13/2010 · 3 Comments

I rarely watch the All-Star Game anymore.  Why watch your league either get their brains beat in, or lose late, year after year after year?  I really did not even watch much of last year’s game, either – and it was in St Louis (I did watch that pre-game show, though).

So I had not planned to watch much of this year’s game either, and as it turned out, I didn’t have a chance to turn the tube on anyway.  Until the bottom of the fifth, when I watched it long enough to see Dodger reliever Hong-Chih Kuo start Evan Longoria off 0-2 and come back to walk him.  Then Joe Mauer hit a little nubber in front of the mound, which Kuo promptly air-mailed down the right field line.  Great.  Robinson Cano followed with a sac fly and a 1-0 lead.  I turned it off.  Here we go again.

Now, though, I had that same curiosity that killed the cat.  The game came on again with Scott Rolen at third and Matt Holliday at first.  I watched Marlon Byrd have the at-bat which changed the game against one of the elite relievers in the AL, Matt Thornton.  Byrd started off 0-2, refused to swing at the high fastball, fouled two tough pitches off, and walked.  McCann’s double happened two pitches later.  Might as well watch the end of it now.

The rest of the game did not pass without incident.  Matt “can’t catch a fly ball in Southern California” Holliday flubbed another ball in left, that was GENEROUSLY scored a double.  Dude – this is the All-Star Game.  The ball hit him in the glove.  That’s an ERROR.  Adam Wainwright hung out off the outside edge to righties, throwing a lot of balls, but survived thanks to Vernon “Hack’ Wells rolling the first pitch to short, and Torii Hunter flailing at two balls to strike out.  I think, perhaps, the adrenalin of playing in his home ball park got to Hunter just a wee bit.

Jonathan Broxton did his level best to boost Maalox sales in the ninth.  A solid single to right by David Ortiz.  Adrian Beltre struck out.  John Buck hit a dying quail to right, and Byrd made the play of the game this time, catching the ball on a bounce and gunning Ortiz at second.  Ian Kinsler’s fly ball was well-struck, but Diamondback Chris Young ran it down to end it.

It’s nice to see, in a year dominated by pitching, the NL win – especially with all the pitching talent the NL had on display in this game.  I facetiously thought the NL would never win another All-Star Game so long as Interleague play existed, seeing as the last NL win was 1996 and all.  Guess not.  All those soothsayers who thought the NL streak would end last year, well, they were almost right.  In the year the NL broke the streak, the host team wore red, and the jerseys for the HR derby were red for the home team and blue for the visitors.  Just off by a year.

Here’s one more odd thought to chew on:  1997 was at the height of steroids use in MLB.  So the NL can’t win an All-Star game while steroid use is rampant.  It’s a theory that offense is down this year because hitters have been off the juice long enough for their physiques to return to normal.  Maybe the NL couldn’t win because they cheated less?

Note tongue planted firmly in cheek.  Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds plied their trade in the NL after the 1997 All-Star game, so the NL was hardly innocent in all this.

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Jeff Suppan is not the answer

07/11/2010 · Leave a Comment

Jeff Suppan made his fifth start in his second stint as a Cardinal last night.  As all the others, it didn’t go particularly well, even with additional time off; it had been 9 days since his last start.  He didn’t get out of the fifth; he allowed 4 earned runs; he surrendered another home run.  The Cardinals lost the fourth straight game he started, and he was saddled with his fifth consecutive loss this season.

Some of the raw numbers do not look good as well.  Since re-joining the Cardinals, Suppan has pitched into the sixth inning only once, and not made it out of the fifth three times.  He has allowed home runs in 4 of his 5 starts.  But here’s the sad part:  he’s actually pitched BETTER in St Louis than he was in Milwaukee.  His strikeout numbers are up, and his ERA has improved by almost three runs (7.84 when he left Wisconsin; 4.88 in St Louis).  Unfortunately Fangraphs doesn’t break Suppan’s numbers down between Milwaukee and St Louis – they lump them all together under the heading ’2 teams’, so I can’t tell if his FIP or xFIP is better now than it was before the trade (I suspect it is).

Even with that improvement, he really isn’t helping a team struggling to fill the back two slots in the rotation.  At this point, one has to ask what Jeff Suppan is bringing the mound that’s different from one of the Memphis starters (Lance Lynn, anyone?).

Unfortunately, so long as the Cardinals must rely on Suppan and Hawksworth to make 40% of the starts, this is not a playoff team.  The standings accurately reflect that.

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Wainwright equals Order Restored

07/10/2010 · Leave a Comment

We should pause a moment and remember one of Walt Jocketty’s great trades.  December 2003 – St Louis sends JD Drew and Eli Marrero to Atlanta for Jason Marquis, Ray King, and a minor league pitcher.  Adam Wainwright.

Eli Marrero (2006) and  Ray King (2008) are out of baseball.  Jason Marquis is in the Washington National organization, underwent surgery to clean up his pitching elbow, and will likely see his consecutive years in the playoffs streak end.  JD Drew, still fighting the injury bug, patrols right field for Boston.  Only Wainwright remains with the team that acquired him in the 03 deal.

If I remember correctly, there were comments at the time of the trade on how Wainwright was a potential ace.  Boy did that come true.  Following the team’s debacle in Denver, Wainwright fired eight scoreless innings, overwhelming Houston 8-0.  A true ace is able to stop a losing streak.  Eight of Wainwright’s 13 wins this season have come following a Cardinal loss.

Coupled with Cincinnati surrendering a late to the Phillies, again, St Louis eased back within 2 games of the division lead.

It was also gratifying to see them finally solve Bud Norris, he of the 4-0, 0.35 digits against the club in his career.  Single runs in the first, second, and a 3-run bomb from Matt Holliday to break the game open.  That’s Holliday’s fourth HR in as many games.  Have we missed that power stroke?  You betcha.  With Ryan Ludwick on the shelf, Holliday could not have picked a better time to heat up.

Suddenly I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals’ chances for winning this series.

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Welcome to the Show, Kid

07/08/2010 · 1 Comment

What a way to be introduced to the Major Leagues.  Evan MacLane, called up to replace the injured Adam Ottavino, arrives at the ballpark in the fifth inning.  He has just enough time to get dressed, introduce himself to LaRussa and Duncan, make his way to the bullpen (handshakes all around I’ll bet), then he’s warming up to come into a suddenly tie game in the ninth.

One batter faced.  Six pitches.  One Home Run allowed.  One loss.  I do not think that went according to Evan MacLane’s script.

“Not a good debut,”  Tony LaRussa is reported as saying after the game.  Well gee whiz Tony, who’s to blame for that?  The kid, or the manager forced to throw him into a tie game, at Colorado, in the bottom of the ninth, after typically overmanaging the late innings for the second night running?

Bernie Miklasz says we shouldn’t diss the bullpen because of the last two games.  Aside from the responsibility they bear for not making pitches in Colorado, I agree.  If we need to diss anyone it should be the manager.  Whoever heard of burning through 5 relievers while leading by six runs?  That management set up today’s bullpen availabilities and necessitated using MacLane in a high leverage situation.  One wonders if LaRussa will bury the kid in his bullpen for the next 2 weeks as punishment for last night.  I hope not, but I wouldn’t be surprised.

So the Cardinals have lost two very winnable games, and face Ubaldo Jimenez this afternoon.  I expect Chris Carpenter will pitch better than he did on Saturday, but Jimenez is the best pitcher in the NL so far in 2010.  It will tough to not get swept out of Denver.

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Nine in the Ninth

07/07/2010 · Leave a Comment

Nothing shakes a writer out of the doldrums like an epic collapse.  Here are nine thoughts on yesterday’s loss: 

  1. Dennys Reyes hadn’t given up a run in his last seven outings dating back to June 13th.  The Rockies had not scored on Reyes, in Colorado, since July 10 2005 (5 years and 2 teams ago).
  2. According to Baseball Reference, no Cardinal pitcher had ever given up six runs in the ninth inning before last night.  Only two Cardinal hurlers had allowed six runs in 1/3 of an inning as late as the eighth:  Ricky Bottalico (9 June 1999 at Kansas City) and Hal Woodeshick (7 June 1967 against Houston, and the Cardinals gave up 5 in the ninth that day as well).
  3. The last time Ryan Franklin gave up six runs in a game he was still a starting pitcher, and spread the pain out over four innings.
  4. The last time Franklin surrendered six or more runs as a reliever?  2002.
  5. Only twice had a Cardinal pitcher recorded one out, given up six or more runs, and allowed two home runs:  Mark Petkovsek (pronounced pet-KAI-sek, I always liked that name) in 1998, and Jack Crimian in 1952.  Musial went 2 for 6 on that day in ’52.
  6. Coors Field has a well-earned reputation as a bandbox where no lead is safe.  That said, again according to Baseball Reference, before last night the Rockies had never scored nine runs in an inning at home, much less 2/3 of an inning.
  7. The Rockies scored 12 runs and left 13 men on.  This marks the third time this year Colorado left at least 13 men on base.  In fact, they left 20 on Sunday against San Francisco (13 hits, 15 walks) in a 4-3 win.
  8. Surprisingly, even with this loss the Cardinals are only 36-40 all time in Denver.  Funny the tricks your mind plays on you; I thought they routinely went into the  Mile High City and got bludgeoned.  That said, they haven’t won a series in Denver since 2006.
  9. Randy Winn’s error hurt, but Seth Smith absolutely destroys right-handed pitching, posting an OPS of .913 career (.949 in 2010. all of his HR) against them.  As that inning deteriorated, the fans got excited, and momentum took a seat in the Rockie dugout, one just knew he was going to administer the coup-de-grace on the game. 

Finally, check out the win probability from yesterday’s game: 

Graph reproduced from www.fangraphs.com

 

It’s frustrating, it’s aggravating, it’s infuriating.  But it’s only one loss, and a very unusual one at that.  I’m not going to get worked up over it.  Unless, of course, the Cardinals slip on a banana peel late in tonight’s game too… 

Update 12:21 PM PDT - Derrick Goold is reporting last night as the third time St Louis has blown a 6-run lead in the ninth inning.  My guess is the 6 runs were surrendered by more than one pitcher on those other two occasions, which would account for why I couldn’t find that data in my search.  The other option is my search was too cursory, which is possible; I looked for about 5 minutes.

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This One’s For You

07/02/2010 · 3 Comments

If you read this blog with any regularity, you know I’m active duty Navy.  My time is winding down – in less than a year I transition back to civilian life.  The military has been good to me and my family, and I’ve had opportunities to do things some folks dream about, but most folks will never understand.

The world changed course during my military service.  I’ve written before about September 11 2001, and how those events immediately affected me.  I haven’t discussed what effect the attack had on our military.  For the first 3-4 years of the war, the brunt of the exertion was carried by the Marine Corps, the Army, and all service branch Special Forces commands, with assists from Air Force strike/logistic arms and Navy carrier air power (and TOMAHAWK shooters).  This was primarily a land war, so my Navy mostly sat this one out.

Sometime in 2004 the Department of Defense came up with the Invidivual Augmentee program (IA).  Basically the idea was to get more folks toting rifles into the fight, and fill the support billets for the guys on the front line with personnel from other services.  Since most of the Navy isn’t actively engaged in daily combat operations, a significant portion of those billets are filled by Navy personnel.  Not just active duty, mind you; a good chunk of those positions are manned by Reservists.

The guys on the front line are there because they volunteered, and have been trained to be there.  The guys overseeing supply operations from Camp Freedom, or working out of a forward support base in Afghanistan, or monitoring oil platforms in the Persian Gulf, are folks who might have just rotated off sea duty (or were headed back to it) and got redirected to fill these critical billets.  Otherwise, they may be guys who left active duty, joined the Reserves, have a good-paying job in the States but got called up to serve again because their country needed them.

I suspect privately many folks on IA probably did not want to go.  Yet all of them do, all serve capably in their assignments, and all return home to their loved ones and re-enter their previous lives without complaint.  The fact that no one knows their names as they capably carry out duties they either weren’t trained to do or received rudimentary training for, then upon completion of those duties blend back into society again, is a testament to their professionalism, character, and patriotism.

I have friends on IA in Iraq and Afghanistan.  For some of them, it is their second (or third) trip into the war zone.  All of them are fathers, brothers, husbands, sons.  One will never hear their names called out on Fox News nor watch them give an interview, but they do a job there so we can sleep peacefully here.  Sometimes I feel they’ve done more in their twelve-month IA tours to defend this Nation than I’ve done in my 19-year Navy career.

As we celebrate the 234th anniversary of the founding of this Great Nation, I ask you remember not only the men engaged in combat with our enemies, but those supporting them in theater as well – especially those on Individual Augment.  They are no less heroes than the men In Harm’s Way.

Come Home Safe When the Job’s Done.  God willing, that will be sooner rather than later.

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