Once, a long time ago, St Louis was a national hotbed of soccer – or so my Dad used to tell me. St Louis used to have a professional soccer franchise in the Major Indoor Soccer League, and that team logo is what you see here.
So with that history in mind, let’s do a little World Cup writing. Perhaps you got up early and watched the USA/Slovenia game. Or perhaps you just caught the highlights. Either way, you’re aware the US played a terrible first half, and a scintillating second to salvage a draw. They probably should have won the game, but the go-ahead goal in the 85th minute was disallowed.
The US had thus tied England, widely considered the strongest team and favorite to win their group, and Slovenia, who wasn’t given nearly enough credit as a competent team. Slovenia had beaten Algeria in their first game, and England was to play Algeria later on Friday, so odds of the US advancing out of the group stage seemed very, very long. That is, until England laid an absolute egg and tied Algeria 0-0.
Now this group is completely wide open. All 4 teams still have a chance to advance into the knockout stages. Most national reporting has focused on what the US needs to do to advance, but I’m curious as to what each team has to do to advance. Let’s set the current standings:
- Slovenia, 1-0-1 (wins-losses-ties), +1 goal differential, 3 goals scored
- USA, 0-0-2, 0 goal differential, 3 goals scored
- England, 0-0-2, 0 goal differential, 1 goal scored
- Algeria, 0-1-1, -1 goal differential, 1 goal scored.
On 30 June the Americans will play Algeria, and the English will play Slovenia. Here are all the possible scenarios for advancement out of Group C.
Algeria. Will advance IF they win (so have 4 points) AND:
Slovenia wins, or Slovenia and England tie, or England wins by more than one goal than Algeria wins by (so the Algerians would have the goal differential edge on Slovenia).
England. Will advance IF they win (so have 5 points), OR:
They tie, and the US ties, while scoring at least 3 goals more than the US scores. If they tie, and the US ties, while scoring 2 more goals than the US, who advances will be solved with a coin flip. NICE.
Slovenia. Will advance IF they win (7 points) OR tie (5 points), OR:
They lose and Algeria wins, but they lose by one goal and Algeria only wins by one goal, so they advance on total goals scored. If they win they win the group. If they tie and the US wins, they could still win the group depending on total goals scored.
USA. Will advance IF they win (5 points), OR
They tie and England ties. Then they finish second based on total goals scored. If the US and England win both advance, and goal differential will determine who wins the group. Of course if both teams win by one goal the US might win the group based on total goals scored.
Next Wednesday at 7am is going to be fascinating, because each team will advance if they win. It’s going to be all out for these 4 teams.
