Stan Musial's Stance

Window to the Diaspora Fan

06/29/2010 · 2 Comments

Photo: Chris Lee, STL Post-Dispatch

As a left-coaster, the great thing about Cardinals games is their start time.  Games begin at 5:10 local time and are typically over by 8:30 pm.  Prior to having children, this posed a fantastic relationship – the game came on just as I got home, so I could enjoy it while making and eating dinner.

Once the children showed up, however, the game times fell in conflict with kid/Dad time, dinner, the bed time ritual, and so on.  That, coupled with the propensity of my youngest to drag out actually going to sleep as long as possible, meant I got most of my Cardinal game updates by reading the recap once it’s over.  The rise of the iTouch/iPhone has changed that somewhat, so I can sit with my youngest and still monitor the game.  Multi-tasking at its finest.

Why am I sharing all this with you?  Because this is the sequence of events that appeared on my mobile platform last night describing the bottom of the ninth.  No context, just the prose.

Keep reading →

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AL All-Stars

06/24/2010 · 8 Comments

Today we look at the American League All-Star Voting and select a team.  Once again, I’m basing my votes on Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  The WAR calculation takes into account player contributions both on offense and defense, which is why I like it.  So how are the voters doing?  Are they picking the best players, or are the most popular/well-known players ruling the day?  WAR leaders are based on Fangraphs data.

First Base. Vote Leader:  Justin Morneau.  WAR Leader:  Morneau.  Our Pick:  Justin Morneau.  Score one for the voting public.

Second Base. Vote Leader:  Robinson Cano.  WAR Leader:  Cano.  Our Pick:  Robinson Cano.  Two for Two.

Third Base.  Vote Leader:  Evan Longoria.  WAR Leader:  Adrian Beltre.  Our Pick:  Adrian Beltre.  I know, Longoria is having a good year, ultimately the All-Star game is about offense, and Beltre is only 0.2 WAR better than Longoria right now.  I have nothing against Longoria, I just like Beltre a little better.

Shortstop.  Vote Leader:  Derek Jeter.  WAR Leader:  Marco Scutaro.  Our Pick:  Alex Gonzalez.  There’s 0.7 WAR points between the top 6 shortstops in the AL.  Scutaro is all glove, Jeter is mostly bat, Gonzalez has a slightly better bat than Jeter does.  Really there’s no wrong answer here; Gonzalez, Scutaro, Jeter, Cliff Pennington are all deserving in my opinion.

Catcher.  Vote Leader:  Joe Mauer.  WAR Leader:  Mauer.  Our Pick:  Joe Mauer.  It’s close here between Mauer and Victor Martinez.  Both have suspect gloves; in fact, Mike Napoli may be the best all-around catcher in the AL (not as potent a stick, but a much better glove).  That said it’s very difficult to pick against the reigning AL MVP.

Outfield:  Vote Leaders:  Ichiro! (RF), Carl Crawford (LF), Josh Hamilton (LF).  WAR Leaders:  Crawford (LF), Alex Rios (CF), Shin-Soo Choo (RF).  Our Picks:  Carl Crawford (LF), Alex Rios (CF), Ben Zobrist (RF).  To me Crawford and Rios are slam dunks – both are far and away the best players at their respective positions in the AL.  Right field is a toss-up.  Choo has posted a 2.8 WAR campaign so far, Ichiro and Zobrist 2.7.  I’ve picked Zobrist simply because he had a great year last year, and is playing very well again this season.  His exclusion last year was a travesty.

Starting Pitcher:  WAR Leader:  Cliff Lee.  Our Pick:  Cliff Lee.  Think about this – Lee missed the first month of the season, and yet he’s been the most valuable starter in the AL anyway.   Wow.

I will not be picking a DH on general principle.  Take whichever overpaid-no-glove hitter you like.

How’s the voting public doing?  Four of the 8 vote leaders are the best players at their position based on WAR.  In two other instances (3B and SS), the player leading the votes is the second-best by WAR.  Looks like the fans are doing quite well picking the AL.

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NL All-Stars

06/23/2010 · 7 Comments

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance is putting together an All-Star team, and accepting nominations from members.  It would be easy to say, ‘the starting 8 for the Cardinals please’ and turn that in – after all, this is a popularity contest -  but I am not that big a homer.  How about this:  an All-Star team based on Wins Above Replacement as of 21 June 10?  I do reserve the right to modify the nominations.

First Base:

Vote Leader:  Albert Pujols.  WAR Leader:  Adrian Gonzalez.  Our pick:  Albert Pujols. With apologies to Mr. Gonzalez, this is after all a Cardinal blog.

Second Base:

Vote Leader:  Chase Utley.  WAR Leader:  Chase Utley.  Our Pick:  Chase Utley. Like, duh.

Third Base:

Vote Leader:  Placido Polanco.  WAR Leader:  Ryan Zimmerman.  Our Pick:  Zimmerman. With apologies to Scott Rolen, who is having a resurgent year, Zimmerman is the best third baseman in the NL.

Shortstop:

Vote Leader:  Hanley Ramirez.  WAR Leader:  Troy Tulowitzki.  Our Pick:  Hanley Ramirez. Tulo went on the DL this week with a broken wrist.

Catcher:

Vote Leader:  Yadier Molina.  WAR Leader:  Brian McCann.  Our Pick:  McCann. It’s a bit hard to believe McCann leads in WAR after all the time he’s missed this season, but he does.

Outfield:

Vote Leaders:  Ryan Braun (LF), Jason Heyward (RF), Andre Ethier (RF).  WAR Leaders:  Andres Torres (RF), Marlon Byrd (CF), Matt Holliday (LF).  Our Pick:  Corey Hart (RF), Marlon Byrd (CF), Josh Willingham (LF). Hart leads the NL in home runs, Byrd has been surprisingly solid, and Willingham is having a great year.

I should point out here that the OF voting has always amused me.  Apparently MLB doesn’t think the average fan is smart enough to pick a left, center, and right fielder.  When I was a kid it seemed the starting outfield always included two center fielders; this year, no CF is in the top 3.  One would think, since MLB has insisted on making the result of the All-Star game determine home field for the World Series, each league would want the starters to at least PLAY that position during the regular season.  It can’t be that hard to modify the ballot to break the outfielders into the three positions.

Starting Pitcher:

Vote Leader:  not a position one can vote for.  WAR Leader:  Roy Halladay.  Our Pick:  Stephen Strasburg Ubaldo Jimenez. I know, Strasburg is the greatest pitcher in the history of humanity throwing anything for distance and power, but before we anoint him as The Chosen One let’s see him throw more than 20 innings.

Tomorrow:  American League.

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Foreshadowing of articles to come

06/22/2010 · 1 Comment

Stealing a page from Joe Posnanski, I’ve got some irons in the fire I’m working on and wanted to give you, gentle reader, a glimpse into the future.

- A long overdue post on Out Of The Park Baseball 2010,

- A Roger Maris book review,

- My All-Star selections for the NL,

- Yet another baseball adventure story (which I hope you enjoy reading as much as I enjoy the playing and subsequent writing),

And, a ticket giveaway for August at Busch III.

So please check back later this week for those.  I’ll be putting up my standard thoughts on the Cardinals too.  As always, thanks for reading; it continues to amaze and humble me that you find my perspective interesting enough keep stopping by.

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Mike’s Baseball Adventure – Game 2

06/19/2010 · Leave a Comment

After years of playing softball at a competent level, I began to think about playing baseball again.  It had been over a quarter-century since the last time I walked off the field in a league baseball game.  When a friend mentioned he was playing in a San Diego Adult Baseball League this summer, and the team was looking for players, I decided to go for it.  This series recounts those games.

Well the first game was successful in every way but the outcome.  For the second game, we would be playing at Damato Park.  This location has a beautiful view beyond the outfield wall of canyons, Aero Drive, Balboa Avenue, and the surrounding area.  Why, you can see Fry’s Electronics from the warning track waaay in the distance.

The Park turned out to be very family friendly in terms of amenities (although the snack bar wasn’t open, which isn’t a big deal) and space for the kiddies to roam and be, well, kids.  The other interesting feature of this field is the distances.  It’s 304 down both lines, and 310 to dead center.  When I was 11 I could hit the ball over 200 feet without much effort, so this seemed a really short porch for grown men, no matter how decrepit we might be and how slow our bat speed has become.

Keep reading →

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World Cup Group C

06/18/2010 · Leave a Comment

Once, a long time ago, St Louis was a national hotbed of soccer – or so my Dad used to tell me.  St Louis used to have a professional soccer franchise in the Major Indoor Soccer League, and that team logo is what you see here.

So with that history in mind, let’s do a little World Cup writing.  Perhaps you got up early and watched the USA/Slovenia game.  Or perhaps you just caught the highlights.  Either way, you’re aware the US played a terrible first half, and a scintillating second to salvage a draw.  They probably should have won the game, but the go-ahead goal in the 85th minute was disallowed.

The US had thus tied England, widely considered the strongest team and favorite to win their group, and Slovenia, who wasn’t given nearly enough credit as a competent team.  Slovenia had beaten Algeria in their first game, and England was to play Algeria later on Friday, so odds of the US advancing out of the group stage seemed very, very long.  That is, until England laid an absolute egg and tied Algeria 0-0.

Now this group is completely wide open.  All 4 teams still have a chance to advance into the knockout stages.  Most national reporting has focused on what the US needs to do to advance, but I’m curious as to what each team has to do to advance.  Let’s set the current standings:

  1. Slovenia, 1-0-1 (wins-losses-ties), +1 goal differential, 3 goals scored
  2. USA, 0-0-2, 0 goal differential, 3 goals scored
  3. England, 0-0-2, 0 goal differential, 1 goal scored
  4. Algeria, 0-1-1, -1 goal differential, 1 goal scored.

On 30 June the Americans will play Algeria, and the English will play Slovenia.  Here are all the possible scenarios for advancement out of Group C.

Algeria. Will advance IF they win (so have 4 points) AND:

Slovenia wins, or Slovenia and England tie, or England wins by more than one goal than Algeria wins by (so the Algerians would have the goal differential edge on Slovenia).

England. Will advance IF they win (so have 5 points), OR:

They tie, and the US ties, while scoring at least 3 goals more than the US scores.  If they tie, and the US ties, while scoring 2 more goals than the US, who advances will be solved with a coin flip.  NICE.

Slovenia. Will advance IF they win (7 points) OR tie (5 points), OR:

They lose and Algeria wins, but they lose by one goal and Algeria only wins by one goal, so they advance on total goals scored.  If they win they win the group.  If they tie and the US wins, they could still win the group depending on total goals scored.

USA. Will advance IF they win (5 points), OR

They tie and England ties.  Then they finish second based on total goals scored.  If the US and England win both  advance, and goal differential will determine who wins the group.  Of course if both teams win by one goal the US might win the group based on total goals scored.

Next Wednesday at 7am is going to be fascinating, because each team will advance if they win.  It’s going to be all out for these 4 teams.

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From Soup to Circus Vargas

06/17/2010 · Leave a Comment

It was nice to see Jeff Suppan don the familiar number 37 for his second stint with the Cardinals, but like most fans I had no idea what to expect from him.  He hadn’t pitched since June 4, and he hadn’t lasted longer than 4 innings since April 23 which, as it turned out, was his last start before Tuesday.  Derrick Goold put up a poll at stltoday.com asking folks to offer their opinion on what Suppan would do in his start, with the overwhelming majority expecting less than 5 innings, and less than 4 earned runs.

Looks like we knew, because that’s exactly what he did.  Suppan had base runners all over the place, working only one 1-2-3 inning (the third), but he escaped largely unscathed, allowing only a home run to Milton Bradley leading off the fourth.  Suppan was done after 73 pitches, and left down 1-0, but he kept the Cardinals in the game, and they came back to win 4-2.  For a guy that was discarded by the pitching-poor Milwaukee Brewers, that’s as good a start as could be expected.  Must have been nice for Suppan to appear in a game his team won for the first time since May 9th.

On Wednesday Jason Vargas locked up with Jamie Garcia in a battle of left-handers.  One kind of knew how this would go.  Vargas is a soft-tossing lefty.  His fastball, which he throws 63% of the time, averages 86 MPH, and he throws a change-up 25% of the time which sits about 80 MPH.  The old adage is St Louis can’t hit left-handed pitching.  Judging from this game, it’s still true.  Vargas worked into the eighth for only the second time all season, holding the Cardinals to 5 hits and a run.

Jamie Garcia was just as good (7 IP, 5 hits and a walk), but two runs came home against him, making him the tough-luck loser.

At least the Reds lost to Los Angeles.  St Louis remains in a tie for first.

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